CyprusLiving

The currency markets are now quoting £1 = €1.10

HSBC has said that they believe Sterling will achieve parity with the Euro in 2017.

Once Chapter 50 is triggered in March 2017 I wouldn't be surprised if Sterling takes a big tumble.

The exchange rate is currently at 1.1322. I've heard that a rogue trader entered the market causing the flash fall in the exchange rate. It only lasted for a short time before he/she was discovered and transactions removed from the system.

Seems that the Germans and French are terrified that we are leaving the Common Market and are trying to frighten other countries from following our lead.

There is nothing to suggest the Pound will take a tumble once we start the exit procedure. Your guess, that's what it is, is as good as anyone's but is not fact.

Alan

I don't know where you got your rate from it's actually trading at 1 1139

If it were true, it wouldn't be the first time in Cyprus for parity, I remember it well and we were in the EU at the time.

Jackie

pf

It's called currency fluctuation.

Alan

ex-hooker

No it's not Alan, this is pure and simple one of the consequences of Brexit. There will be many more to come before the process is finished.

This may help people to understand (unless they can remember 30 odd years ago when the £ was last this low against the $ - and they think that because we have been there once before there is no reason for concern) ....

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/video/lis ... vp-BBx8u2B

This is a self inflicted decline solely due to Brexit vote and nothing else this time. It certainly is a concern for us living on the island, not that we can now do anything about it.

5.30am today the rate is....1 GBP =1.11011EUR gloom and doom what gloom and doom

Good morning Jim... You are absolutely right what you say regarding Brexit. The leavers were duped no matter how they want to dress it up! The pound has collapsed and will take many years to recover if ever. Still at least we will all be looked after once the promised £350 Billion is spent on the N.H.S.

Dave morning NHS? I live here will always do so. I will never use the UK NHS again.I do agree with you though,

I remember certain members before the vote saying the pound would not go down, bags over ones head maybe?

Alan,

'Seems that the Germans and French are terrified that we are leaving the Common Market and are trying to frighten other countries from following our lead...'

In one sense you are right but not because of the currency. The Germans and the French don't want any other EU countries thinking that there is a 'pick and mix' with regards to benefits, commitments and responsibilities of belonging to the EU. And as such the EU is firmly saying to the UK its an 'in or out' choice with absolutely no compromise on the four founding elements of the EU.

The Prime Minister May's clear assertion at the Conservative Conference that it is going to be hard Brexit together with confirmation from public comments this week by Merkel and Hollande (and other EU leaders) that has spooked the markets and has almost certainly set in motion (if not already) the planning by organisations, that are located in the UK with EU operations, to relocate all or part of their operations to the EU.

The assertion by Johnson, Davis and Fox that German car makers would not endanger their exports to the UK has been thoroughly rubbished as the BDI, that is the voice of German industry, has fallen into line by behind Merkel who has said and to quote 'the internal cohesion of the European Union would come before defending German exports to the UK. '

I suspect that this will be just one of many in a long line of negative and realistic statements aimed at the UK that will challenge the lies and overly optimistic blue sky views peddled by Johnson, Davis and Fox to the British public and in doing so will erode the confidence in Sterling and May's ability to extract any type of deal from the EU.

When talking German exports to the UK - certainly cars and household goods and even (mens) fashion - these have never been driven by price. What UK-made products would they have to compete with anyway?
In the UK they are desirable partly because of quality but more importantly as symbols of status. A few %% added to the sales price because of excise/duties would hardly change that..... Such goods in the UK are not sensitive to price changes but most probably to wealth changes.
What Germans are worried about in respect of such exports is not a loss of competitiveness in the UK but a self inflicted decline of wealth and living standards there. Once (for example) staff of the finance industries leave in drones few will be left to buy a BMW on a whim....

The markets responded to a trading error on the Asian market. As the trades are done automatically by computer, they simply automatically sold sterling in response to the figures presented by that error, dropping its value. The markets are now closed for the weekend, so it will not be until at least Monday before there's a meaningful response to the drop. It had nothing whatosever to do with May's announcement about triggering Article 50 before the end of March. Actually I would expect it to be triggered before that - perhaps as early as January, but either way it will be going ahead early in the New Year.

As for the German car manufacturers, you don't impose punitive trade restrictions on one of your biggest customers and expect there will be no reciprocation. Britain has voted to leave the European Union, and by definition that means the single market - continued membership of which would be no different from remaining in the EU. That does not mean that Britain cannot continue to trade with Europe, and a low value Pound will more than offset any tariffs that can be imposed. Britain has said it is prepared to offer tariff free trade, on condition that it receives tariff free trade in return.

If Europe says no, then it will be German tax payers who will suffer, as well as having to fund the EU experiment almost alone. Let's see how well that sits at the ballot boxes in the forthcoming elections. It's little wonder Merkel and her stooge Hollande are panicking. The EU is dead. It just hasn't fallen over yet.

Peter,

German products will always sell because, as you rightly say, their reputation for quality and engineering excellence.

But Merkel has said that German industry will receive no favouritism from her when she and the EU tell the UK what options are on the table which could be very few.

currency trading does not stop for weekends. Values change minute by minute all the time.

KG wrote:The EU is dead. It just hasn't fallen over yet.

As Mark Twain might have said: "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated".

The trading involved only a few cents and almost self-corrected within an hour or two. The pound started falling when the referendum was first announced, dropped like a stone after the vote...and has continued plummeting ever since. I believe it will continue to do so; there is nothing positive on the horizon to arrest it's decline.

Well, Friday night may have been a computer induced or exaggerated flash crash.
Nevertheless, a few days before Sterlingf has been trading at a 31-year-low against the dollar.
A lot of what´s been said as to why or why not reminds me of childish whistling in the dark.

Thatcher has de-industrialized Britain almost completely and mad an emirate for quite a while afterwards, solely dependent on oil and gas.
Until she copied Reagan and deregulated the financial industry which then flourished on the construction and sale of financial WMDs.
Now the Brexit will do serious harm to that.

What an earth shall make the pound rise, please? And why?
And what shall generate growth? Cheaper exports on the back of a weak pound? What, may I ask, is there to be exported on the back of price?
The top exports of the United Kingdom are Cars ($46B), Gold ($37.4B), Crude Petroleum ($23.1B), Refined Petroleum ($22.1B) and Packaged Medicaments ($19.6B). Its top imports are Cars ($47.3B), Crude Petroleum ($34.1B), Refined Petroleum ($27.7B), Packaged Medicaments ($21.5B) and Computers ($16.9B).
Oil exports and imports these days are pretty much a zero sum game and if anything imports become dearer.
So are cars. But they are almost all made by non-British companies some of which are already asking the government for compensation of Brexit-induced damage and threaten to move production elsewhere (harder to do than to say though). Much the same applies to IT.

So do you really believe exports of cheddar cheese can carry the UK economy?

The fall in the Pound is being caused partly by British Traders betting against the Currency, these are the same people who backed "remain" and just won't accept the fact that they lost.

Come on Britain!

Long term IF the euro/pound stays low it may affect tourism in Cyprus ....already the UK is reporting a 17% rise in staycations from 2015....the eurozone may not be seeing as many British tourists next year.

I'm coming over there soon, getting €200 for £200 beer money ATM is one thing....but putting it on the price of flights and holidays by next year is entirely another....ripples...

"The big issue for the pound right now is that it has become detached from the economic fundamentals and politics have become king. This is where things will get dangerous for the currency going forward," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.
"Theresa May's hard-line on Brexit negotiations and her insistence that negotiations will take place in private have only increased uncertainty for the market, with traders left combing news websites for the latest headlines to try and gauge for themselves the state of play between the UK and the EU," she added.

The incident happened at a time when there is very little pound trading going on - which means that any sell-off will have a bigger impact than during busy hours.
The situation is likely to have been exacerbated by trading algorithms (sometimes know as algos) - software which is designed to trade automatically and can react much faster than human traders.
"These days some algos trade on the back of news sites, and even what is trending on social media sites such as Twitter, so a deluge of negative Brexit headlines could have led to an algo taking that as a major sell signal for the pound," said Ms Brooks from City Index.
"Once the pound started moving lower then more technical algos could have followed suit, compounding the short, sharp, selling pressure."
Ms Brooks thinks another flash crash could be on the cards for the pound.
"This highlights the drawback of machines making trading decisions, however, it is the reality, and it is only getting more popular. Thus, another flash crash is possible," she said.

A computer trading on NEGATIVE brexit headlines, there's obviously more of them than positive ones...

It seems to me very worrying that a mere machine can do so much damage, rubbish in, rubbish out.

Jackie

So that's settled then:

EU nationals will be allowed to stay in the UK after Brexit, according to Home Office report

SNAPPA News 8 October 2016

All EU nationals will be allowed to remain in the UK after Brexit, according to a report.

The Home Office has calculated that five in six of such migrants would be unable to be deported, according to the Daily Telegraph.

More than 80% of the estimated 3.6 million EU nationals living in the UK will have permanent residency rights by the time Britain is expected to leave the EU, with the remaining 600,000 set to be offered an amnesty, the newspaper said.

Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted that the status of EU nationals in the UK will depend on how the 1.2 million Britons in the rest of the bloc are treated after Brexit.

The Government has come under attack from across the political spectrum for refusing to guarantee the status of EU migrants in the UK, leading to confusion among EU citizens resident in the UK as to their status.

emgee wrote:The fall in the Pound is being caused partly by British Traders betting against the Currency, these are the same people who backed "remain" and just won't accept the fact that they lost.

Come on Britain!

Alan where do you get this junk from? this downturn is solely due to the exit vote, like many others they just did not believe this would happen, like you Alan they had their heads well buried in Coral Bay sand.

I voted to remain and it was a tight vote, those who did vote for the UK to leave may just be thinking they wished they hadn't Alan, you must have a big tin box under your bed full of converted cash when it was 1.37? now it is under 1.13, what has this to do with the way I voted? wake up mate!! Jingoism and waving the Union jack will not help us pensioners, we will be long gone before if any improvements to the UK economy help any of us, now where is that cash box?

Sorry (I am) another downturn in the exchange rate 1pm Saturday it is down again to 1 GBP =1.11 EUR

If Allan sold his £s into euro at 1.37 was he betting against the £? So that with the fall in the £ to 1.13, he could sell his euros and buy back £s, making a big profit?

Happy in Cyprus wrote:So that's settled then:

EU nationals will be allowed to stay in the UK after Brexit, according to Home Office report
.

Looks like the migrants in Calais will be even more determined than ever to come to the UK.

I suppose if France and Germany want to rid themselves of their unwanted guests all they need to do is give them passports and a plane ticket to the UK or Ireland and wave them off with au revoir and auf wiedersehen.

I'm not sure what, if anything, the UK could do about it.

Can you support this assertion that "British Traders are betting against the Currency" by providing a link to a news article?

The FT has to say this:

Sterling used to be a relatively simple currency that used to trade on cyclical events and data, but now it has become a political and structural currency. This is a recipe for weakness given its twin deficits. The currency is now the de facto official opposition to the government’s policies.
The FX market is exhibiting an uncanny resemblance to the five stages of grief. First, following the Brexit vote came the denial – theories circulated whether a second referendum would have to take place. Second was anger – claims the vote was unfair. Third was the bargaining – arguments maybe it wouldn’t be that bad, what if the UK followed the Norwegian or Switzerland model. Now the fourth a gloom is prevailing over sterling.

keving

I could but don't know how to do it.

Alan

alewfin wrote:

Happy in Cyprus wrote:So that's settled then:

EU nationals will be allowed to stay in the UK after Brexit, according to Home Office report
.

Looks like the migrants in Calais will be even more determined than ever to come to the UK.

I suppose if France and Germany want to rid themselves of their unwanted guests all they need to do is give them passports and a plane ticket to the UK or Ireland and wave them off with au revoir and auf wiedersehen.

I'm not sure what, if anything, the UK could do about it.

Just an idea but how about the UK stops benefits for these people.

i]'Seems that the Germans and French are terrified that we are leaving the Common Market and are trying to frighten other countries from following our lead...'[/i]

In one sense you are right but not because of the currency. The Germans and the French don't want any other EU countries thinking that there is a 'pick and mix' with regards to benefits, commitments and responsibilities of belonging to the EU. And as such the EU is firmly saying to the UK its an 'in or out' choice with absolutely no compromise on the four founding elements of the EU.

The Prime Minister May's clear assertion at the Conservative Conference that it is going to be hard Brexit together with confirmation from public comments this week by Merkel and Hollande (and other EU leaders) that has spooked the markets and has almost certainly set in motion (if not already) the planning by organisations, that are located in the UK with EU operations, to relocate all or part of their operations to the EU.

The assertion by Johnson, Davis and Fox that German car makers would not endanger their exports to the UK has been thoroughly rubbished as the BDI, that is the voice of German industry, has fallen into line by behind Merkel who has said and to quote 'the internal cohesion of the European Union would come before defending German exports to the UK. '

I suspect that this will be just one of many in a long line of negative and realistic statements aimed at the UK that will challenge the lies and overly optimistic blue sky views peddled by Johnson, Davis and Fox to the British public and in doing so will erode the confidence in Sterling and May's ability to extract any type of deal from the EU.[/quote]


So, lies to join in 1971, lies to stay in in 1975, and lies to 1...leave and 2...remain in 2016. Gosh, what a gullible lot the Brits seem to be.

On the contrary the country is completely divided .....the negativity talk in media towards brexit picked up by computers causing the flash crash....people aren't regarding it as positive....and the govt have just added to the problem by recent speeches, even Hammond who is far more sceptical has been told to ' watch his back' you couldn't make it up....

Now they choose this time to give all uk expats a vote for life....if only they'd done so before the referendum a million possible more votes may have changed everything..

Just to add a little stir to the mix...........
Any and all Import Duties levied on goods going into the UK from non EU countries............GOES DIRECT INTO THE COFFERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION !!!!! Every single penny. Now there's a thing, eh?

So....What is to stop the UK Government from....1....Ceasing to charge Customs Duty on all imports from those countries who want to trade with us but cannot because of the stranglehold the EU has on our decisions.....2....Give the same deal to the EU so long, of course, as the EU plays ball and does the same for the UK. Those non-EU countries that wish to have reciprocal agreements would jump at the chance, I would wager.
We could then have access to the "Free Market" without having to allow anyone in.
By the way.....I fail totally to see what is wrong in allowing free movement, or indeed allowing EU citizens to live and work in the UK, so long as they realise that if they do not they would get the same benefits I can get from the Cyprus System...ie Naff all as Norman Stanley Fletcher used to say. And, of course, that the remaining EU members reciprocate for UK citizens.

I feel the stock exchange is a dangerous and unstable system. It is designed to profit those who wish to steer it and bankrupt others. So the pound is doing exactly what the big "money people" want it to, us little folk are what is described as collateral damage.
So why are you all hopping up and down complaining your losing money, it's want they want to happen. Of course it is not a system you can opt out of.
I do think the United States of merkle will be quite hard towards the UK for causing a bump in her grand megalomania plan.

lewisestwo wrote:....because of the stranglehold the EU has on our decisions.....

I am really surprised to what extent an otherwise sophisticated nation has allowed one sided propaganda to lead it down a garden path.

The stranglehold:

The EU’s standard decision-making procedure is known as 'Ordinary Legislative Procedure’ (ex "codecision"). This means that the directly elected European Parliament has to approve EU legislation together with the Council (the governments of the 28 EU countries).

Before the Commission proposes new initiatives it assesses the potential economic, social and environmental consequences that they may have. It does this by preparing 'Impact assessments' which set out the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options. The Commission also consults interested parties such as non-governmental organisations, local authorities and representatives of industry and civil society. Groups of experts give advice on technical issues. In this way, the Commission ensures that legislative proposals correspond to the needs of those most concerned and avoids unnecessary red tape.
Citizens, businesses and organisations can participate in the consultation procedure via the website Public consultations.

National parliaments can formally express their reservations if they feel that it would be better to deal with an issue at national rather than EU level.

Mind you: The nosedive of Sterling continued today: Another 0.5% against the Dollar...

The European Parliament and the Council review proposals by the Commission and propose amendments. If the Council and the Parliament cannot agree upon amendments, a second reading takes place.
In the second reading, the Parliament and Council can again propose amendments. Parliament has the power to block the proposed legislation if it cannot agree with the Council.
If the two institutions agree on amendments, the proposed legislation can be adopted. If they cannot agree, a conciliation committee tries to find a solution. Both the Council and the Parliament can block the legislative proposal at this final reading.

Sessions of the European Parliament and some Council sessions can be watched live online.


Two things are immediately striking. First, there was a big increase in the level of conflict in the Council between 2004-09 and 2009-15, with many more governments voting No or Abstaining in the latter period than in the former period.

Second, the UK government was on the losing side a far higher proportion of times than any other EU government in the 2009-15 period: jumping from being on the minority (losing) side only 2.6% of the time in 2004-09 to being on the minority (losing) side 12.3% of the time in the 2009-15 period. Also, the next most frequent “losing” governments, Germany and Austria, were only on the minority side 5.4% of the time in this period.

One thing to note, though, is the very high level of agreement in the Council in both periods. Put the other way round, the UK voted on the winning side 97.4% of the time in 2004-09 period and 86.7% of the time in the 2009-15 period.

Why do people cut and paste , then pass it off as there own comments without providing a link to where they got it from ?

Apologies, Sindbad,

but people thought that thsi stuff by now was (or should be) common knowledge.

These are the two links used and copied from:

http://europa.eu/european-union/eu-law/ ... cedures_en

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/does-th ... ministers/

I really don't care who voted for what in the past, we are leaving thank goodness, and yes the EU did have a stranglehold on the UK. Just have a look and what we can and cannot do thanks to the EU. We voted out, mainly because the majority of UK voters want to decide what we do, not 27 other nations making those decisions for us. Being a Euro MP doesn't make you perfect, they can be wrong, and as I see it, they have been

It may be a hard road, it may not, the fact is no-one knows, but we are prepared to take the chance to be free of Europe.

Correct but why then did you vote to leave knowing you and all the rest had no idea what would happen, the exchange rate is dire for us living on the island, this of course would not effect some...admin

tsadapeter said; "I am really surprised to what extent an otherwise sophisticated nation has allowed one sided propaganda to lead it down a garden path."

Perhaps you are overdoing the sophisticated bit?

I have no problem opening my eyes to the statistics that you have quoted: "the UK voted on the winning side 97.4% of the time in 2004-09 period and 86.7% of the time in the 2009-15 period.

... and that means: The HM Government agreed to and with at least 90% of everything "..what we can and cannot do thanks to the EU."